Benny Moo

HR 3221 and Colorado Springs

What you Focus on Expands...Even When You're Blind

REALTORS love mangling professional athletes' performances as analogous to their own professional toil.

It's pretty comical and I'm probably more guilty of it then anyone I know (can you guess where this is going?).

Seriously, what is similar to the routine of Tiger Woods hitting 1000 golf balls a day and networking a sphere of influence? How is Peyton Manning scuffing 60 footballs for three hours and then winning the Super Bowl in the rain applicable to a short sale experience? Probably all the same similarities as claiming our commission dollars are deserved due to experience, and "you wouldn't hire the cheapest brain surgeon, would you?" Neither the stakes nor the job (and especially our education) have any correlation to brain surgery. Or golf balls. Or footballs. Or swimming goggles.

But still, there are examples that really, really stand out. Last night was such a case.

I was my high school swim team captain, and I think I more than most can appreciate how unbelievably hard competitive swimming is. It is, in my opinion, the loneliest sport. You're competing alone against others. You can only see them, you can't hear them, you can't psyche them out with stares, trash-talk, any of that. You're wrapped in the cocoon of sound that is water, and as an animal, we are not well equipped to be wet. I was not a talented swimmer. Any coach in any sport will tell you, "give me talent, because I can teach discipline". Correspondingly, I was decent, but never good. I still have a beautiful, technically perfect stroke, handicapped by a total lack of rhythm from the waist down and inability to muster more than a two-beat kick. As a distance freestyler, you have to have a four-beat kick to keep your momentum going. I might as well have dove in with a pull buoy strapped between my legs since I was constantly dragging my legs through the water. Doing that for 20 lengths in the 500, my best event, probably cost me 30 seconds in time, an eternity in swimming.

So last night as I watched Michael Phelps yet again break a world record, I could tell something was wrong. It didn't take the lively commentary of Rowdy Gaines to clue me in. I could see clearly that his last turn was a bomb and at 185 meters, he bonked. His stroke went to hell. He displaced huge amounts of water. His neck was straining. His face was crashing into the water. Phelps is a poet in motion, and suddenly, everything blew up. When he hit the wall and his eyes were bulging out of their sockets, I knew something had happened. I just didn't know what. Maybe swimming 5 miles a day and racing three events that day after four years of intense training and focus for that moment had caught up with him.

The truth was a lot more simple. You probably know the story already, but his goggles filled with water. He couldn't see from the moment he hit the water.

As a swimmer, I had the same thing happen a couple of times in big races. There is nothing more consuming or frustrating because in swimming, your turns are everything. It's not just the reach of your stroke and your perfectly-timed kick, but the body actually moves much faster NOT SWIMMING in a totally streamlined, power position blasting off the wall. International swimming has now banned dolphin kicks off the wall past 15 meters because the disciplines are about the strokes, not the dolphin kick, but perfect form coming off the walls propels the streamlined body faster than over-the-water strokes. In a 200 fly event, there are 3 turns. There are three opportunities for the world's best technician to extend his lead. Generally speaking, seeing the wall is the only way to be a brilliant technician.

Unless your Michael Phelps, or for that matter, anyone else who is a master of Plan B.

Michael Phelps counted his strokes.

Think about that for a second.

The man had 9 of the 10 fastest times ever in the world in the 200 Fly. That means he kept swimming it faster and faster. That means he kept reaching the wall faster and faster every single time. That also probably means... it's fewer... and fewer... and fewer... strokes... especially when you're swimming faster than you ever have before. But he knew enough from experience to be able to anticipate exactly where the wall would be to nail two of his three turns. He blew the last one (by his standards) and that is what kept him from destroying the world record. He merely broke the sucker.

At the same time, his two closest competitors swam the swims of their lives and had top 5 all-time times.

Phelps couldn't control their performances.
He couldn't even react to their performances because he couldn't see them.
He just chugged on, not lamenting his misfortune of water-filled orbs on his eyeballs, and paid them no special attention. He just immediately shifted into Plan B, two seconds into yet another monumental swim. Forget Plan A. Plan B will just have to work.

Plan B only works when Plan B is simple. Instinctive. Accessible without thinking.

Do you have a Plan B?

Do you have a Plan B right under your nose?

Do you have a Plan B that you're ignoring? A simple routine that is entirely ordinary?

What's totally amazing is that Phelps broke down his insane daily routine to something he knew intimately well and just shifted gears. "I can't see, so I will count strokes."

I wrote yesterday about a real estate market that has 1/3rd less volume up for grabs than it did at it's Summer Peak, the Summer of 2006. For most of the industry, the goggles filled with water 2 years ago, and most of us are still swimming blind. I hear the constant chatter from my peers that can be summarized in swimming terms as "where is the wall?" We hit the water, the situation changed, and we haven't stopped making excuses, adjusting our lenses, looking at the other lanes, screwing up our stroke and wondering when we're going to be transported to the first wall. And it feels like in a minute 52 it's already over, all around us, game over.

Blind, Phelps switched gears, in probably less time than it takes to say "Phelps switched gears".

Stephen Covey makes his most accessible points professionally talking about circles of influence (COI) and circles of concern (COC). Most of my life I spend my time in my COC, and not in my COI. I make this excuse that it is an existential manipulation to go to the COI to try to "work that". But it isn't existential to spend time in a COI, if I don't work it. That COI is what I am designed to operate in.

I'm designed for community. I'm designed for friendship. I'm designed for relationship.

You are too.

"Working" a COI is a Plan C, a construction of complication, dollars, effort and re-invented routine.

"Being" in a COI, being in community, being in friendship, being in relationship... hopefully that's familiar territory.

It has weird little applications.

This morning, one of my three boys was really sick, my wife was up with him the entire night and I couldn't leave for work. Amy needed a break and a few hours sleep. I had to stay home with the twins. Thrown off routine, and my non-focused "I should be at work" distraction, the potty-trained twins regressed. Two times. Amazing amounts of pee. In about 10 minutes.

My temptation was to vault to the complicated Plan C. Shame.
"Jer, where do we go potty? Jer, does a Big Boy go potty in his underpants?"

Let's see, we have tone of voice, bent eyebrows, psychological torment, past/present/future associations and the mind of a two-year old to translate it. My influence on this circle ought to work. Right? Third time. Lots of pee. On the kitchen floor.

Plan C invariably gets complicated. It gets annoying. It gets demeaning and manipulative and expensive and lo and behold, Plan C usually doesn't work. In fact, Plan C usually produces more backfires then benefits. Plan B was right under my nose.

Cheerios. Floating in the toilet. "Oh, you won't let me hand them to you? Would you like to pick them out of the box, Jer? Would you like to give some to Isaiah? Isaiah, do you want to sink Cheerios? Can I join you?"

Daddy and his three boys sinking the ships. Fun times. Giggles. Laughter. Isaiah and Jer clapping their hands running out of the bathroom saying "I did it, I did it".

They've been dry for 4 hours and each made three more trips to the potty. Voluntarily.

Relationships are complicated. They are scary. I often try and avoid them. But when kept simple, they're some of the truly great joys in life.

I will probably never face a moment in my life where water in my goggles will define me for generations to come. But it is a blessed truth to know that Plan B, the most familiar one right under my nose, often works the best.

Market Data for August 2008

The August Stat Pack is done and like so many recent months, the bag is mixed.

Download august_2008_stat_pack.pdf

Sales activity is stable and listing inventory is dropping. I personally wish this began three months ago, although after 2 and a half years of market decline, I'll take any improvement I can find, even if that improvement is a flat-line as opposed to a descent. The combination of unit sales going up in July over June (this only happened once in the previous 8 years) is positive and the fact (I like facts!) that there are now 500 fewer properties for sale than the same time last year makes it clear that the market has reached bottom.

But it is wrong to say that there is no place to go but up.

I want to pay attention to two things today working together that explain why parts of this market remain in for a long bumpy ride. They are Sales Volume and the High-End Market.

Sales Volume.

Sales Volume is the Sum of all the units of real estate sold through the course of a year. Presently Sales volume is off 23.8% from 2007. In 2007, sales volume in July was off 13.4% from 2006. In 2006, it was up 4.5% from the year before. What does this mean?
In 2006, there were 3500 licensed agents. At renewal last year, there were 4000 (although indicators are that there is a serious drop off in numbers over the summer as the market has "gotten worse"). The people trying to work the pie gained 14% in membership, and 1/3rd of the pie they were working disappeared.

If you think about it from that angle alone, it indicates the level of conflicts of interest operating in the market. There is less business and more people competing for it. But from the individual REALTORS perspective, it is a far more serious problem:

• Citywide, agents this year will average 4.5 total transactions. Making some big assumptions in terms of what agents get paid, that is $7500 in gross commission per transaction or a gross wage of $33,750. The average agent has at least $1000 a month in expenses (I have $3700), which means that before taxes, their adjusted income is $21,000. How good is the advice given by the average agent in a market like this when they are this cash-strapped?
• Go further down this same rabbit hole: the average co-op commission now is no longer 3%. Why? If the property is bank-owned or being short-sold, it often is not offering "full co-op" or 3%, but 2% or 2.5%. So that gross wage per transaction just got smaller by 1/3rd. Yes, some homes are offering 4%. Some are offering bonuses. But these tend to be among higher-end properties, and without buyers for these homes, those co-ops are ineffective because there just aren't buyers for them, and correspondingly, no closings paying out those bonuses.
• Even premier agents in this market are hurting badly. There have been 23, $1 million dollar or larger transactions year to date. This time last year? Forty-six. Not one sale in the MLS has exceeded $2 million. This is really expensive business to maintain and there are 275 homes for sale in excess of a million right now. Those marketing these homes have huge expenses. And the margin just isn't there. The sales volume of over $1 million transactions was 2.7 TIMES larger last year. The over $1 million home averaged $1.5 million. This year it average $1.17 million. It's not just fewer of them, but it's the "barely" over a million that is selling.
• Sellers are watching a ticking time bomb on their rates ready to adjust. Those on 5/1 ARM schedules with an interest-only feature could get hammered. These were extremely popular in the acquisition of properties from $400,000 to $600,000 from 2004 to 2006. From $575,000 to $650,000 there is a 30-year supply of housing right now. At the same time these homeowners will likely see their interest rates go up AND they will have to stop making minimum Interest-only payments but also pay an additional $250 or more in principal every month. So the rate goes up AND they have principal, so it's not just a $150 a month gain in interest but also principal. Suddenly, $400 to $500 just evaporated from the monthly budget. And buyers for their home are scarce. The same thing is true on less expensive properties, those in the "average" category, but the effects won't be quite as severe. The big trend from 2000 to 2006 was the "big house". The average home size increased 18% nation-wide from the mid-90's to 2006. How that house was acquired was with exotic financing, financing you can't get into any more, and probably can't get out of without proving a hardship and blowing up your credit rating.
• The reality that many of the bigger homes were purchased via a method of finance that doesn't exist today looms as a storm cloud in this market. The old measuring stick of "buy or don't buy" used to be "could you afford to buy your home today?" That axiom was meant to say "don't get in over your head." Well in 2004 through mid-2007, Jumbo rates were only a half percent higher than conforming rates. Today they are 1.5 to 2.0% higher. Most people never stopped to ask if Jumbos would move well-away from the conforming values. Just like the assumption that all home values would go up, no one assumed Jumbos would stop acting like conforming loans, even though they have never been backed by Fannie and Freddie and are significantly more risky for a lender (hence their name). It wasn't just interest rates that changed. It is the entire method of financing. All the rules of then, are gone now. Piggy-back seconds are gone too. So the old thoughts of "well, I'll just re-finance, even if rates are high, I'll figure out something" really doesn't apply now.

This all sounds very dark and ugly. But it is meant to illustrate something to both buyers and sellers. The game has changed. Those who adapt to change first are the first to succeed. In 2003, foreclosures were widespread in Colorado Springs and nobody paid attention to it because there was demand, and demand ate up that supply. You could look at foreclosures if you wanted to... or not. NOW... we will have the fewest number of listings come on the market since 2001. This during a time when the active inventory is almost double the active inventory on the market in 2001. So what's the catch? A lot of what is coming on is garbage, over-leveraged, in-distress, rate-adjusting, bank-owned, heading-to-foreclosure or the like. There is a very telling line in the Stat Pack this month, the Pricing Trends slide showing the relationships of price between Average Price New List, Average Sale Price, Average Price List. The Average Sale Price and Average Price New List have a wide gap between them of almost $60,000. But the average price of all homes on the market (Average Price List) has soared another $60,000 higher than that to over $372,000. The reason? The high-end is sitting. Units are moving, it's just the units acquired by "the everyman".

 
So when will this market change?

When "the everyman" figures out that they can sell their house and has the desire to buy a nice home at a price $100,000 to $200,000 more than their own. The worst is over for "the everyman" and that is over 80% of the market. Yes, the "everyman" might have to list their house for a $5000 discount. Maybe $10,000. But the home they're looking at may not have had a showing in 45 days. How do you think that seller will react to an offer? Will the "everyman" make up their $10,000 loss? Will the "everyman" end up $10,000 ahead? $20,000?

Where are these everymen? There is an almost balanced market below $275,000 (6 months supply of housing equals no advantage to either buyer or seller). There is less than six months from $250,000 to $275,000, the prime "move-up" price range. There is less than six months supply of housing right now in N/E, EAS, N/W and BRI right now and it is right at 6.02 months in S/E. The average selling prices for these areas:

• BRI: $317,000
• EAS: $186,000
• N/E: $244,000
• N/W: $320,000
• S/E: $143,000

The Briargate homeowner who lives in Fairfax and wants to move to Pine Creek: CAN.
The Old Farm homeowner who wants to move to District 20: CAN
The Hallmark or Richmond homeowner in Wagon Trails who wants to move into a Saddletree or Allure with views by the school: CAN
The homeowner in Pinon Valley who wants to move into Mountain Shadows or Peregrine: CAN
The Sand Creek Homeowner who wants to move to Springs Ranch or Cheyenne Hills: CAN

That's not to typecast or stereo-type a move. It is to describe common local buying patterns and move up buys of $100,000 to $200,000 in higher price.

All politics are local. There's a big debate as to whether all real estate is local. Right now, the best way for the high end to get some movement, is if the local market gets cranking.

Free Friday: ICE CREAM at 1520 Windwood this Sunday!

If 8431 Winding Passage is the best buy in Briargate (and shoot, that's not even my listing), I think I can safely say the best buy in Monument: 1520 Windwood Ct.

Just as I previewed Briargate yesterday I previewed $500,000 to $600,000 in Northgate and Monument last week.

My conclusion: there was a single home on the market (out of 15) that were a better buy than my listing at 1520 Windwood Ct. My listing on Windwood has a single problem, it backs to a busy road, and this was a custom home with a great plan and great condition of similar vintage for only a few thousand more on a great, landscaped lot.

Well the sellers decided they wanted to be number one with a bullet.

1520 Windwood Ct. is $535,000.

I have comparable sales galore to support $575,000 to $600,000. These are closed sales since October 1, 2007. The one on Longmeadow at the end of the street closed at $540,000 June 30th. Same size, no features at all like 1520 Windwood, and 6 years older. Tract versus Custom, Custom is now $5000 less.

Red Fox sold for $530,000. Also six years older. Oak cabinets and 12 inch ceramic tile in the kitchen. 1520 Windwood: 42" Cherry and Granite.

Last week it was competitive at $550,000.

This week it is compelling at $535,000.

And it's open as part of the Parade of Home Massive Open House ERA SHIELDS Sales Event Extravaganza this Sunday.

With free ice cream.

Good ice cream.

We're talking Dove Bars. Heath Klondikes. Genuine Bomb Pops. Fudgecicles. Julie's Blackberry Sorbet Bars. Even the Vegans can enjoy bliss this Sunday afternoon.

Swing Buy. I'd love to see you. One to 4 pm, Sunday, and here is a map on how to get there.

8431 Winding Passage: Best Buy in Briargate

Previewing is hell on your car. I take small pocket areas and try and see as much as I can in that area, usually in a consistent theme (like five bed, 4 bath, three cars that I did yesterday in Briargate and Northgate). I look at one, write notes, 3 minutes later I’m back I my car. I start it up, the dash beeps because of that turn signal bulb that keeps shorting out, I drive maybe a half mile to a mile to the next house, park it, run in, preview, I’m out again in three minutes. My notes take maybe 15 seconds, lots of dashes, exclamation marks, smart-aleck comments (“homage to wallpaper”; “dead yard over 400 in BRI?”; “Yeah, cat piss!”;”agent-in-trouble”; “Christopherson’s house! Listed for sold price last year!”; ”4% + $1K, holy-motivated”).

The last comment came from the last house I looked at. Maybe I did what I used to do to my buyers: rope-a-dope myself into seeing the best home last. After 18 previous homes that ran the gamut from pretty nice to just horrible, what-are-they-smoking-bad, the last home I saw was 8431 Winding Passage in Wolf Ranch. It was one of the better turn-key buys I’ve seen in a long time.

Let me begin by checking my bias at the door. I don’t like Creekstone Homes. I forget about them all the time as a local builder. I don’t usually like their plans, I associate them with very average quality and building in neighborhoods that often just aren’t that sexy or never really go anywhere (University Bluff is a prime example). So I almost cut this home from my original grouping of 37 homes because of that bias.

Bias checked: this home rocked. It didn’t match any of the above complaints. Maybe it was some of their owners that screwed ‘em up. These owners keep this house beautifully.

The negotiations start at $384,900 (that’s my way of saying list price), but I haven’t been called for feedback yet (I supplied it by email… ALWAYS SUPPLY FEEDBACK, it’s a cooperative business). I mention this because I could not believe some of the conversations I had earlier in the week. One home was listed at $420,000. I told them it needed to be below $400,000. “We can do that” I was told. Okay… so what you’re saying is the list price is $400,000? In other words, just take 5% off and treat that as the start to negotiations?

Tangent aside, $384,900 provides a buyer with a 2005 built home on a 8000 square foot mostly flat lot, four huge bedrooms PLUS a retreat with fireplace off the master all upstairs, cherry cabinets with stainless appliances, big living spaces and a great basement. It did not have a main level family room because it had a huge kitchen and oversized eat-in nook in addition to the formal dining room and living room on the main. Over 3500 square feet finished, central air, super-duper tidy, and unsold.

Here is where the nature of the great buys in this market come in:
This home probably comp’ed out at original asking price of $410,000. It probably didn’t sell because it didn’t have granite in the kitchen and some floors are vinyl not tile. Someone who wants to get their closing costs paid can reserve their cash from that seller contribution to slab the kitchen and tile where there is vinyl. The sellers are already down $25,000, are offering agents 1% more plus another $1000 bonus if they get a contract by next Friday. All of that is negotiable as well.

There are beauty contests and there are price wars. This one does well on both accounts.

My Favorite Sinner

So I just changed my Facebook Profile.

The world of cranky, over-tired children, cranky, over-fearful REALTORS, cranky, under-funded sellers catches up with me daily. My reservoir is usually pretty empty at day's end. Hugh MacLeod does a good job encapsulating my world daily:

So when I read something this disruptive, elegant and beautiful, and realize the man who wrote it still had demons ahead of him that would literally plunge him into the seedy gutters of New Orleans drunken and unconscious, I am captivated and held up.

I'm filled up.

From Brennan Manning's Lion & Lamb:
Shortly after I was ordained, I took a graduate course at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. The professor was an old Dutchman who told the following story: "I'm one of 13 children. One day when I was playing in the street of our hometown in Holland, I got thirsty and came into the pantry of our house for a glass of water. It was around noon and my father had just come home from work to have lunch. He was sitting at the kitchen table having a glass of beer with a neighbor. A door separated the kitchen from the pantry and my father didn't know I was there. The neighbor said to my father, 'Joe, there's something I've wanted to ask you for a long time, but if it's too personal, just forget I ever asked.'
"'What is your question?'
"Well, you have 13 children. Out of all of them is there one that is your favorite, one who you love more than all the others?'
The priest continued his story: "I had my ear pressed against the door hoping against hope it would be me. 'That's easy', my father said. 'Sure there's one I love more than all the others. That's Mary, the twelve-year old. She just got braces on her teeth and feels so awkward and embarrassed that she won't go out of the house anymore. Oh,but you asked about my favorite. That's my twenty-three year old Peter. His fiancee just broke their engagement, and he is desolate. But the one I really love the most is little Michael. He's totally uncoordinated and terrible in any sport he tries to play. The other kids on the street make fun of him. But, of course, the apple of my eye is Susan. Only twenty-four, living in her own apartment, and developing a drinking problem. I cry for Susan. But I guess of all the kids...' and my father went on mentioning each of his thirteen children by name."
The professor ended his story saying: "What I learned was that the one my father loved most was the one who needed him most at that time. And that's the way the Father of Jesus is: He loves those most who need him most, who rely on Him, depend on Him, and trust Him in everything. Little He cares whether you've been pure as St. John or as sinful as Mary Magdalene. All that matters is trust. It seems to me that learning how to trust God defines the meaning of Christian living. God doesn't wait until we have our moral life in order before He starts loving us."

Comparable, Competitive, Compelling

Consumer Reports published a study yesterday that showed real estate commissions are negotiable.

I guess this report struck me as a surprise... an exhaustive study was needed to prove this? I try and remain realistic and keep the mind of an outsider and consumer at all times, but the results in regards to commission just weren't that compelling.

Maybe the most interesting piece of the article however was a micro-point: "About 81 percent of the sellers who paid 3 percent or less said the agent provided a competitive market analysis of their home, compared with 87 percent of those who paid 6 percent or more. CMAs can be useful in gauging the state of the market by examining other sold and for-sale home in a given area."

If you're not involved in the real estate industry you probably don't even see the grammatical switch that Inman used in printing this analysis. It's the use of the word "competitive" and not comparable". Most of our industry locally still uses the term "comparable market analysis" and not "competitive market analysis" which I adopted in 2006 when the market began to slip.

There is a hierarchy that is terrifying in it's subtlety right now: the differences in descriptive words.

REALTORS have enjoyed attaching the term "comparable" attached to their market analysis because it gives them a perceived, elevated level of value to their research; as an appraiser can charge $350 for this service, their pre-marketing summation of value uses a similar methodology... comparing a property to other properties, and distilling from market trends what a home ought to be worth.

As the days of inventory saturation began in earnest in 2006, I encouraged the agents I managed to throw out the term "comparable" because there really wasn't a true comparable... does your neighbors home occupy the same plot of land as your own? Does it have the identical carpet? Dishwasher? Smells? These were the things that in the early days made Zillow look bad in their valuations... it said that all you had to do was find similar square footage and streets within a neighborhood and a valuation could come about (note: Zillow is now amazingly accurate in Eastern Colorado Springs and Fountain Valley as they have an unceasing devotion to making their product better. I include a Zestimate as part of all my valuations).  The term in a shortage of demand and over-abundance of supply migrated to "competitive." Why? You were now in a price war.

Well credit the mouth from the south, Todd Beckstrom of ERA Wilder (and likely the other Howard Brinton Star Power agents) with setting the stakes even higher. The over-abundance has flattened out, but the under-supply has continued to dive. As Todd tells his buyers "folks, we're in a price war and a beauty contest and there isn't a second place in either. How seriously do you want to sell?" For Todd, he produces a "Compelling Market Analysis." Why? Well a the person sitting behind me just said searching a neighborhood where one of her listings sits "87 properties... Holy Crap." The only values that stand out are the purple-cow-values, the "compelling-best-buy". From there, beauty wins.

Need another example? I had this property priced competitively in May of this year at $575,000. I had a wide range of values from $525,000 to $650,000 and adjusted for a $30,000 discount for backing to Baptist Road. The prime 60 days of selling in Fox Run were beginning and there was only an 8 month supply of competing property (the over $500,000 market has had 30 months of supply most of the year, so 8 months was really good). Well 75 days later we have re-calibrated to a Compelling Market Value: 1520 Windwood Ct. is now a $600,000 house offered for $535,000. I did the same thing with 6150 Wheatgrass and 6977 Cobblecreek, two market-denied properties I just took over. Both of these properties are more than 8% lower than their original value because... it's a price war and a beauty contest with no second place.

6150 Wheatgrass Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80923: 3 bed/3bath, 2777 square feet built in 1996 for $220,000

6150 Wheatgrass, C/S/C

Why can't I make VEEP suggestions?

Anyone who really knows me, knows that I'm a bit of an odd duck politically. I waddle to the left frequently in one of the most conservative professions in America. So the Obama-teasing from my clients is starting to begin in earnest, and while I will point out most of it is straight from the Limbaugh / Rove school of lampoon (non-issues are the best issues), I will say there is a decided pattern: The Illinois Senator's common "issue refinement" or what those in GOP circles call "flip-flopping."

That's where this blog comes in.

This blog is about change. And it isn't necessarily about one kind of change, or agenda-driven change, or change on principal, or change in America, or some soapbox platform. It's about: change.

Obama is showing himself to be an elastic pragmatist. This week he gave an unsettling endorsement for off-shore drilling, which the angler in me (he did this in Titusville, FL, a favorite fishing haunt of mine) wretched over. But his point for it was again, one of refinement: there is no secret that America presently needs more oil, and if investments are made in pursuing cleaner drilling strategies, innovation generally leads to better things.

So on the issue of refinement, here are my two "consider 'em" recommendations for America's next VEEP.

Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City.

Condoleeza Rice, present Secretary of State and Piano Virtuouso (so says the Aspen Summer Music Festival this weekend).

If we're really about change, then let's bring change to the highest office in the cabinet and to the presidency of the senate. Let's bring in a voice that really doesn't see eye to eye with much but one that either 1.) substantially increases the economic reform abilities and bi-partisanship workmanship necessary for any president in 2008 or 2.) shows that despite direct and frequent criticism of the present administration, the best way to solve tomorrow's problems is with someone intimately familiar with the problems in a present tense. Bringing America together can't be done through a partisan lens.

Change isn't about throwing out the old and bringing in the new. The phrase "throwing out the baby with the bath water" has origins from the Pilgrim colonies in the 17th Century when the Pilgrims would bathe monthly... the youngest bathed last, and by that time the water was so filthy, you couldn't see the baby. Applying that logic today is ridiculous. But it seems that is the fear of those opposed to any kind of change. It's dirty bath water - level change. I don't think that's the case. Big change is necessary in America, and that's evident this year on both sides of the political spectrum. But big change is far more effective if you boil the frog slowly. You boil the frog slowly when there is a willingness to embrace voices that come up with new ideas or hold different principles. Because fundamentally, we are one country, one team heading (hopefully) in a common direction.

Big Price Reduction for new listing: 6977 Cobblecreek

6977 Cobblecreek Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80922

High Meadows in Springs Ranch was one of the final filings for what REALTORs refer to as "Springs Ranch Proper". This area is on top of a knoll with long distance views of Pikes Peak, easy access off of Peterson to the entire east side and was built out by Engle and Keller Homes. The home across the street just sold on the 18th for $362,000. This just-staged, ready-to-go home has been reduced by $20,000 to re-debut on the market at $259,000.

A Keller Concord built in 2005 this home sits on one of the largest lots in Springs Ranch and it is beautifully landscaped. With a custom rock-retaining wall and perennial flower beds it has the look of Colorado springtime even in the heat of summer. The lush green grass yard is fully fenced offering great room for play as well as privacy.

6977 Cobblecreek Drive, C/S/C
Inside, the Keller architectural detail is abundant. The great room is wide open to an island kitchen, with a casual eating nook made all the more handsome by an island with bar. The Corian counters accent perfectly the rich, caramel-colored maple cabinets with an elegant coffee wash for added detail. All hardwood flooring leads from the entry to the back of the house making traffic management and clean up a snap while adding sophistication. The three-room-living-and-entertaining area with Living Room, Kitchen and Nook all working together is the perfect place for a couple to enjoy a quiet night alone or hosting a large group of 20 or more.

The main level master is a retreat looking out in the manicured yard. With ten foot ceilings it is impressive it's design. The master bath features waist-height raised counters with premium bath fixtures, a large soaking tub, a separate shower and a deep walk-in closet.

The additional living area on the main includes a full size guest room with ample space for bedding, furnishing and reading area. Alongside it's own full bath (all baths feature the same maple cabinetry for consistency) the secondary bedroom offers privacy and quiet. A main level office could be finished off as a third bedroom.

The main level laundry includes a paired 2 year old washer and dryer combination and additional storage.

Downstairs is an additional 1000 feet of unfinished future living area.

Since this is a 2005 built Keller home, a buyer can be confident of all the energy-saving measures taken to insure a proper lifetime of home ownership. From a sealed heating system to efficient air movement throughout the home, the cost of ownership is less and the satisfaction higher. This home was improved with central air conditioning shortly after completion. With a roof certification and furnace cleaning accompanying the home warranty, you can buy this home with total peace of mind.

Triiibes and the Consumer: Day One

To quote the Avalanche announcer, John Kelly: "Thank you, thank you, thank you."

Thank you, Seth Godin.

www.triiibes.com just launched in advance of Seth's forthcoming book "Tribes". In all honesty, I haven't figured it out yet, but it looks like one amazing collection of social media revolutionaries, sneezers, influencers, technologists and other individuals for whom staying put is not an option.

I joined because I subscribe to Seth's Blog, probably still my favorite daily posting (and I mean daily) of anything that matters for a marketer. Since Seth is such an astute thinker, it isn't really fair to say the thinking is restricted to marketing. For Seth, the best way to market is to build a better product, one in tune with the consumer's needs.

Thus my membership in Tribes. Here is the Day One experiment, a Q&A that asks questions for what really, really matters to the consumer.

I am a believer that in my profession (real estate), it is terribly easy to be reactionary and incredibly difficult to be proactive and on-purpose. This is the hardest year I've confronted in the business (today is the start of my 10th year) yet I have been successful primarily because I genuinely care about people and relationship, I collect lots of data so I can give it away and I ask lots of questions. But I still think I'm a long, long way from where the average consumer really wants me to be. For the exceptional consumer (the consumer I frankly really want to work for), I think that distance may be severe.

So to mark day one on this social media enterprise, here is a question to the masses: "what are your expectations of a REALTOR Website? "

• What are some positive things you have seen?
• What are some negative things you have seen?
• What is missing?
• How do you get any "feel" for the person you discover in an online world?

Sound off. I'm not offended.